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Source-backed profile

Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers

Install or repair heating, central air conditioning, HVAC, or refrigeration systems, including oil burners, hot-air furnaces, and heating stoves.

BLS SOC 49-9021 · O*NET-SOC 49-9021.00 · BLS 2025–2035 · O*NET 31.0

Median annual wage, 2025

$61,010

Projected change, 2025–2035

10.9%

2025–2035 annual average openings

40,600

AI exposure

Moderate

Editorial analysis

The HVAC system may diagnose itself before the technician arrives

Modern heating and cooling systems increasingly produce streams of operational data. AI can use that information to detect abnormal patterns, predict component problems, optimize energy use, and tell a technician which parts of a system deserve attention before a service call begins.

Diagnosis gets a head start

A future technician may arrive already knowing that a unit has shown an unusual pressure pattern for three days or that its electrical consumption differs from similar equipment. That can make troubleshooting faster. It does not replace recovering refrigerant, repairing a leak, replacing a motor, installing ductwork, testing airflow, or working in an attic on a hot afternoon.

  • Predictive maintenance can shift some service from emergency repair toward planned intervention.
  • AI can assist with manuals, wiring diagrams, diagnostic codes, and technical support.
  • Automated building controls increase the need for technicians who understand both mechanical systems and software-driven controls.
  • Installation and repair remain strongly tied to physical skill and real-world conditions.

Rather than eliminating HVAC work, AI is likely to make the best technicians more informed when they arrive at the equipment. Workers who combine refrigeration and mechanical expertise with electronics and building-control knowledge should be particularly well positioned.

Labor-market picture

Two measures, different questions

These measures offer two different ways to understand the occupation: BLS projections show how national employment may change over time, while relative AI exposure highlights where tasks may intersect with AI-related capabilities. Read them with the work profile and your local context to decide what deserves closer investigation.

Employment

Employment, 2025
440,900 jobs
Projected employment, 2035
489,100 jobs
Projected change, 20252035
48,200 jobs (10.9%)

Relative AI exposure

BLS category: Moderate. This is a relative task-exposure classification, not a forecast of employment change, automation, wages, or worker replacement.

Relative AI exposure · Moderate

Work profile

Representative tasks

These task statements come from O*NET 31.0. They are source facts, not labels assigned by the AI exposure measure.

  • Discuss heating or cooling system malfunctions with users to isolate problems or to verify that repairs corrected malfunctions.
  • Test electrical circuits or components for continuity, using electrical test equipment.
  • Repair or replace defective equipment, components, or wiring.
  • Lay out and connect electrical wiring between controls and equipment, according to wiring diagrams, using electrician's hand tools.
  • Schedule work with customers and initiate work orders, house requisitions, and orders from stock.
  • Estimate, order, pick up, deliver, and install materials and supplies needed to maintain equipment in good working condition.

Skills that matter

Skills in the source profile

Importance uses O*NET's 1–5 scale. Level uses its 0–7 scale. Select a skill to see its source definition and reported values.

Technology and tools

These technology records come from O*NET and show software or tools reported in the occupation profile. They describe work context, not a required checklist for every employer.

  • Document management software
  • Industrial control software
  • Word processing software
  • Computer aided design CAD software
  • Facilities management software
  • Customer relationship management CRM software
  • Data base user interface and query software
  • Graphics or photo imaging software

Preparation

Typical entry education
Postsecondary nondegree award
Related experience
None
On-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training

Ask JobShift

Ask Dr. Morgan Reed about this evidence

Morgan is the JobShift Atlas analyst powered by AI. Answers draw from the evidence on this page and explain what it can tell you.

Source provenance

Labor-market and exposure facts: bls-ep-2025-35. Work profile: onet-31.0. Verify release details on the Sources page.